Jeff Bezos’ Regret-Minimization Framework

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Knowing when to quit is so important. I have put down a few projects and moved on. I even almost put down Infinity Softworks and moved on. Chris Dixon’s entire article is so good, but this section here has been my benchmark for a long time:

Another way to think about this is using what Jeff Bezos calls the “regret-minimization framework.” Imagine you do give up on your idea. Have you explored most of its plausible implementations? Are you confident that another entrepreneur won’t come along and make it work? You’ll regret it more if you nearly created a big company than if you spent an extra six months iterating.

One mistake that I made when I was going through this 5-6 years ago was to look for other people to give me enough input to make my decision. I figured if there was consensus then it must be the correct answer. But I found that people tell you what they think you want to hear in this case. And almost every one you ask won’t have as much information as you do when making this decision.

A friend visualized this for me. He said the act of starting a business is like confronting a huge wall that stretches as far as you can see in both directions. The act of being successful is the act of doing anything you can to climb it, dig under it, go around it, whatever to get to the other side. He noticed that I had stopped attacking the wall.

I made the call to move on all those years ago. My wind-down of Infinity Softworks lasted three months and I was pulled back in. I changed the wall. I saw a bigger challenge in front of me then the one before and it opened itself up to new ways of getting to the other side. It re-energized me.

I have a friend going through this right now. Her board said stick with it but she decided she didn’t want to attack this wall right now, that after five years of trying to make the business go, it was time to let go.

It’s an impossibly tough decision. And it is no different then mourning the loss of a close relative. If you have to make this decision, I wish you the best of luck. It is not an easy one.

24-Months Until Carriers Become A Data-Only Pipe?

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I wish this had been a quote and been reported more broadly, but as far as I am concerned this article from Fierce Wireless buries the lead: “Stephenson also said that within the next 24 months he envisions some customers moving to data-only plans as voice and messaging become data applications.”

Stephenson is Randall Stephenson, the CEO of AT&T, and this is the first time I have heard a carrier’s CEO admit that there is coming a day when they don’t make money off minutes and texting. Frankly, this will be a great day, hypothetically a day that gets us closer to separating the relationship between the carrier we choose and the devices we choose.

Entrenched interests rarely adjust easily, though, something tells me this quote isn’t as straight forward as it appears. We’ll see.

Forget iOS 6. I Want Improved App Store Tools For WWDC.

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There are a number of really good posts floating around (try here, here, here and here for a few — courtesy of either Daring Fireball or MG Siegler) on things people would like to see added to iOS 6 and be announced at Apple’s worldwide developer conference (WWDC). I’d like to focus on an area that has been broken for four years now and could really use an upgrade and some new features, an area that would roundly be applauded by every iOS developer: App Store Tools.

The information and abilities that we get in iTunes are pathetically out-of-date, to say the least. Four areas I’d love to see improved.

Beta Programs

In the beginning, Apple gave us four devices (first and second generation iPhone and iPod) and 100 slots for testing purposes. Now if you are supporting iOS 5 and later, there are no less than 8 devices that need to be supported. How about iOS 4.2 and later? That’s 34 devices since you should test iOS 4.2, 4.3, 5.0 and 5.1 on each device. [1]

Now… start adding in partner companies. We reserved no less than 20 devices for our DEWALT partners, 10 people at 2 devices each. And I had to sprout horns and ward off potential internal reviewers with a trident. I’ve got more of these deals in process and can’t figure out where I am going to come up with test slots.

Just delete a few, you say? Wish I could. Or, rather, wish this would help as the devices only refresh at renewal, which for me is January.

And don’t even start on the arduous process of getting the unique device identifiers (UDID), getting them into iTunes, changing the provisioning file, getting it into XCode (the dev environment), getting it into the app, distributing it and actually getting it correctly installed. It’s a small miracle when it works.

I’d like to see a couple of things happen here. One, I’d like to see a designation in the App Store for beta applications. This means I can post it to the Store through the standard process and have a private link that I can use to distribute the app. The app can only be downloaded by testers who have permission to access the app. This can be managed by using the iTunes email address (or similar identifier) instead of the UDID, allowing us to opt people in through a simple web portal.

Second, the app wouldn’t need to go through review, since access is restricted, making it fast and easy for developers to iterate. In exchange for abolishing the limit on the number of beta users, the app would be time restricted. In 1-3 months it would time out and the app would automatically be removed from iTunes if it isn’t submitted for review within 18 months.

This would streamline the distribution process, get us out of the business of dealing with UDIDs and provisioning files, and make distribution a snap. Apple would get well-tested, higher quality apps in the App Store as well.

What are the odds of this happening? I don’t know about the details but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a change. Just a few months ago Apple started rejecting apps for using the UDID in their code. They don’t want us to have access. But until Apple deals with the provisioning files, they still need to give us access to it. A new process — like the one I described — would do away with that necessity.

Analytics

I think an honest-to-goodness beta program is a possibility. App Store Analytics, I admit, is a wing and a prayer. Given that, I’m desperate for more information about my apps then what I have now: downloads, purchases, gifts, returns, revenues. Even the basics would tell me a ton of information that would help me figure out how to promote my app. Here is a list of some analytics data I’d love to have:

  • How my app was found: iTunes feature, external direct, company page, search, the “bought other products like this one” links
  • If search, what term was used
  • If feature, from what page
  • On which version of the app store: iPad, iPhone, iPod touch, iTunes
  • For which device model (i.e., iPad 1, 2 or 3)
  • Did the person buy

While I’m not counting on this happening, it would make a huge difference in my ability to understand who is buying, where they are coming from and how I can attract more of them.

If they want to get even fancier, take a look at appFigures and Flurry and bring those features in-house, too.

Promo Codes

Promotion codes are an invaluable tool. Many developers use them to give out free copies to prospective customers, others use them for the press. But these codes are a real pain to get out of the system. First, they are buried four levels deep in iTunes Connect in a place I really don’t want to go unless I am making changes to my apps. Second, they come via a downloaded file, which makes accessing them from an iPad or iPhone impossible. Third, they are a pain in the neck for a customer to enter: copy the code, go to the App Store, go to the Featured tab, scroll to the bottom, choose Redeem, paste it into the field, submit. Finally, they expire four weeks after I create them. Use them or lose them!

Let’s make this easy. When I ask for a promo code, give me an iTunes link with a special code embedded that I can copy and send to the customer — if I request 10 codes then show me 10 links — but show them to me in the browser so I can copy them and send them. The link takes the user to the app store, adds it to their account automatically and starts the download. [2]

Furthermore, we need promo codes for in app purchases. With so many apps going freemium, it is hard to give out free copies of the add-ons. Promo codes that work for in app purchases would make a huge difference, too. Here’s how I’d do it: after clicking the redeem link, download the app if it isn’t already downloaded. Once done it would register the purchase in your account and alert the app that a purchase has been made the same exact way it does today. From there, it is the developer’s responsibility to handle things correctly.

App Discovery

At the time I thought the 100 character keyword limit would be a stopgap solution but here we are three years later and it is still around. Fast forward to earlier this year when Apple bought Chomp, an app discovery web site. Here’s hoping, as my last wish for WWDC, that we get improved search, improved app discovery, and an end to the 100 character keyword limit.

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[1] iPod second, third and fourth generation devices is 3, iPhone 3g, 3gs, 4 and 4s is 7, iPad 1, 2 and 3 is 10. The iPod second generation and iPhone 3g will not support iOS 4.3 and later. So that’s 10 devices for iOS 4.2, 8 for iOS 4.3, 8 for iOS 5.0 and 8 for iOS 5.1, or a total of 34 devices.

[2] I hate the four weeks restriction but it isn’t a big enough deal to care about so I didn’t address it here.

Meeting Senators Wyden and Cantwell

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An email showed up in my inbox about a week ago from Senator Ron Wyden’s aid. He and Senator Cantwell (Washington) were setting up a meeting of local entrepreneurs and organizations, particularly geared around mobile, and wanted me to attend. There were about 50 of us at the roundtable yesterday, an excellent gathering.

We discussed a wide range of issues, including jobs, taxes, privacy, and investment, four issues that the Senators can impact at the national level since they both serve on the Senate finance committee. In particular, taxes are a hot-button issue as the Bush tax cuts expire this year and the Senators are gearing up for a fight.

I wanted to comment in particular on Senator Wyden. I have continually been impressed by the Senator. He reached out to a constituent that he sees as the future of the state but I’m sure is not one who is helping fund much of his campaign right now, looking for input on issues that he admitted he didn’t fully understand. He seems comfortable in his own skin (as did Senator Cantwell). I’ve met a few other politicians who spent the entire time telling you what they are doing for you rather than having a conversation. Neither Senator talked much about their accomplishments, instead content to lead an honest to goodness discussion on what they can do to help us out.

Senator Wyden was fairly unknown for a long time, although I think he started garnering recognition with a health care proposal he and Senator Bennett co-sponsored around the time the country was busy ignoring them and passing Obamacare instead. He became extremely well respected in the tech community earlier this year when he publicly opposed PIPA and SOPA and helped drive nails into the coffins of those terrible pieces of legislation.

He asked for some of us to volunteer, to discuss further some of the issues confronting our industry and help shape his policy perspective for the fall legislature. I am happy to help out. And I hope in return to learn some things, too, including deeper insight into the workings of Congress and the motivations of a single Senator to stand up when others are busy hiding behind benches.

The End of Cable (In My House)

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I finally did it: I cancelled cable.

This has been a multi-year process. A few years ago we dropped all but the local channels, Discovery, WGN and Versus. We still needed cable for the reception, in particular, and we loved Versus (Tour de France, hockey games) and Discovery. But then Comcast removed Versus from their basic service and Discovery stopped showing good shows.

In addition, we moved. In Hillsboro, where we used to live, Comcast’s Basic coverage cost $10 per month. In our new house, 16 miles away, it costs $21. And in last month’s bill we found out they are raising the rates, less than one year since we signed up here. To say the least I was annoyed. Since I reduced my plan to Basic six years ago, we lost channels and got more lousy programming in exchange for more than double the price.

In that same time period all the local channels went to digital high definition. I started investigating antenna, thinking if we can get the local stuff free we can live without the other programming. [1] My first thought was what happens if I unplug the cable, switch the tv to antenna and searched for local channels?

Lo and behold, we get every one of them, perfect quality, plus a couple of others we either didn’t get or didn’t know about on the cable box!

Now… I have $24 per month to spend on entertainment. Hulu+ maybe? Amazon Prime? Or maybe we wait for the next, great thing that actually gives us compelling content to watch. [2]

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[1] This, of course, excludes Mythbusters, which we can’t find when new episodes run anyway. Turns out some old episodes are on Netflix anyway (and more on Amazon Prime!) so we still get our fix when we need one.

[2] Spent some time last night looking at these options. Hulu probably isn’t for us but Amazon Prime is compelling. There is a lot of stuff there that is not available on Netflix Watch Instantly. Plus, free two-day shipping and one free Kindle rental per month.