I Don’t Hear The Fat Lady

Posted November 11, 2009 by Elia Freedman
Categories: Business/Economy

This thing ain’t over. The Dow crossed 10,000 a few weeks ago? Big deal. It means nothing. Unemployment is over 10%. Commercial real estate defaults are rising. The nation’s personal debt is still sustainably high. As I wrote in July, this will be a W recession, not a standard V, and we need to batten down the hatches for that likelihood.

But this isn’t all bad as it needs to lead to a re-prioritization of government.

Here’s my philosophy: In 1980 Ronald Reagan was elected based on a great economic experiment. The experiment was that if we cut taxes on the wealthy, the money they saved and spent would go toward services and the revenues would “trickle down” to the other classes.

It didn’t work. What it did do was amass huge amounts of government debt and widen the gap between the wealthy and the poor to levels never seen before in the country. George H.W. Bush tried to reverse this, raising taxes, setting up the Clinton’s balanced budget, and contributing to the greatest economic expansion in the history of this country, all of which was reversed under George W. Bush.

Now I believe it’s time for our government to forge a new contract with the American people. The daddy state will have to be paired back, as the costs of social security and medicare will bankrupt the country. We need to reconsider our roll as military foundation for the world. As India, China, and other countries step up economically, they also need to step up militarily and do their part.

It’s time for a new conversation, one that starts with these basic issues:

  • A national discussion about basic services and what we should all get and have funded out of tax dollars
  • What our role in international military issues is
  • How, as a government, we need to ensure open markets where everyone is working from an even playing field
  • How government spending can be focused to provide the biggest bang for the buck, particularly in regards to infrastructure and education

If the U.S. has lost its edge, its that it is no longer the land of opportunity. The saying went that anyone could come to America and become wealthy, anyone could pull themselves up by their bootstraps.

Now it feels the deck is stacked against everyone who doesn’t already come from money or have the right contacts. It’s time for us to recapture the magic.

Winning When Software Is Less Than Free

Posted November 10, 2009 by Elia Freedman
Categories: Business/Economy

I just read a fantastic blog post by Venture Capitalist Bill Gurley on the less than free business model. What does this mean? In short, it’s when you get paid by the company instead of the company paying you. Mr. Gurley talks about this in terms of Google’s strategy, that rather than pay Google to use their services, Google will actually pay you a percentage of the revenues they make from ads.

Disruption is a major concern for every business. In the early days of Infinity Softworks it was disruption by Microsoft, who had the clout and power to knock anyone off their perch just by threatening to be in your market space.

But it wasn’t until Microsoft released Internet Explorer that this really got scary. Not only could a company beat you by charging a lower price or be a better known company, now it can kill you by offering for free what once was charged. Chris Anderson, author of Free, would argue that this is the natural evolution of the market. (I wrote about that here.)

The irony, of course, is that Google is now doing to Microsoft what Microsoft did to Netscape: killing it with free. But Google may be cannibalizing it’s own “free” business model. Instead of free, Google is gearing up to pay you to use it’s services.

So for all you entrepreneurs, how do you fend off less than free in your business? (You know, besides the obvious: pray Google buys you so you don’t have to worry about it.)

Wealth Wins the World Series… Again

Posted November 6, 2009 by Elia Freedman
Categories: Other

Two thoughts on Major League Baseball and the World Series:

1. This disparity in baseball between the haves and have-nots is so great it’s hard to get too excited about pro ball. I love the sport and I love the Indians and will always be a fan, but it’s really hard to get worked up over the rest of the league. I’ve been a major fan most of my life, listening to games (the Tribe plus anyone I can hear), going to stadiums just to see baseball, knowing the stats of every player in the league. I just can’t do it anymore.

There have been 106 World Series. The largest market teams — New York Yankees and Mets, LA Dodgers and Angels, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox and Cubs, and Baltimore Orioles, which is 1/3 of all baseball teams — have appeared in the World Series 119 times and won 60 of them. You can pretty much bet that one of those 11 teams will be in the Series every year and better than 50-50 odds that one will win it. How is that equitable and fair?

2. The Indians were all over this World Series. C.C. Sabathia pitched for the Yankees; Cliff Lee pitched for the Phillies. They are the last two reining Cy Young award winners (best pitcher in baseball). Since this disparity is so great and the Indians can’t really do anything about keeping their own players once they approach/reach free agency, I’ve decided to feel more like a proud father than a jealous boyfriend when our players move on. Thome, Vizquel, Ramirez, Lofton, Lee, Sabathia, Martinez… they will always by my kids.

Picking a Niche

Posted November 4, 2009 by Elia Freedman
Categories: Mobile/Smartphone

I spent time the past few weeks hanging around some folks that have inside knowledge of Microsoft and I’m amazed at how bad it sounds.

Take the Windows Mobile group. Please. 2000 people working on Windows Mobile. It’s staggering. And the story goes that that’s where good MS people go to die. Hmmm.

The battle is on, and right now the old hats are being left behind. Apple and RIM, consumer and enterprise darlings, respectively, are the cream of the crop. Android’s coming up fast with a plethora of new devices.

Where does that leave Microsoft, Palm and Symbian, the former heavy-weights of the mobile space? And what niche are each one carving out?

Each needs a killer feature. iPhone, of course, is the entertainment beasts. Games galore coupled with web browsing make it a killer device. RIM, of course, does business email and IT better than anyone else. And Android, besides being the platform for hardware-only companies everywhere, will now have turn-by-turn directions to kill off the GPS companies.

If I’m Palm I head back to my roots and make the beast tool possible for organizing my life. If I’m Microsoft, I probably admit I screwed up and buy RIM, which dominates the market MS should, making MS an enterprise juggernaut with Exchange, BES and devices under one roof.

Searching For Change

Posted November 4, 2009 by Elia Freedman
Categories: Other

I received a call from the Oregon Democratic Committee a few weeks ago asking me for money. I said no. I’ve gotten to the point in my life that I can’t relate to either party and, after this call, finally filed the paperwork to become an independent.

I don’t usually talk politics here but feel so strongly about what’s happening to our country. I’m worried. David Brooks wrote a tremendous article recently that gets at the crux of the problem. As a nation we have moved away from the hard work and thrift ethos that made us the world’s greatest.

Personal debt has gone from 55% of GDP to 130% of GDP over 60 years. Finally, in the past year, we seem to have gotten the message and are saving more. But the government can’t stop spending. We will be closing in on $1 trillion per year in interest payments alone by 2020!

It’s both parties. The control-spending Republicans seem to be all but gone now. Instead of fighting the Democrats urge to spend, the party seems to have devolved into a spitball throwing organization. Instead of smart conversations about affordability of health care and the smartness of government hand-outs, we get lunacy like “death panels.”

And the Democrats, never one to say no to a government hand-out, must be drunk with power, handing out dollars to everyone who asks without requiring anything in return. (Yes, I’m talking to you, car companies and financial institutions.) The party owned by fiefdoms of lawyers and unions and PERS programs can’t say no to the very people that put them in office.

I get the sense that there’s a backlash coming. And I get the sense that those of us who care about such things are struggling for a way to fight back. Running a start-up (in essence) as we re-invent Infinity Softworks for the third time, I’m working and supporting a family of four on less than the median US wage, while I save money each month at the same time.

And it seems, with each passing day, that doing what’s best for me and mine is not nearly enough. It seems that something more is needed. The problem is I don’t know what to do.