The Law of New Media

Horace Dediu writes about the law of new media: “Once you change the method of distribution, the product has to change.”

Fundamentally, you can’t move an existing media to a new network. You have to think of it as a deeply rooted-in system, and it’s just not going to like moving to another environment. You have to uproot this huge tree, and it just won’t come out and if it did it will not take root in a new place.

The only way to create this new value network around new distribution is to plant a new tree.

I have never seen it put this way before but makes me think about all the products that were dominant in the PC era, of which handhelds were literally just a shrinking of, to today’s world of ultra-connected, always on, pocketable computing. How do products like Word and Excel work in this new world? Is Google’s strategy of moving very similar copies into the cloud resolve the “product change” problem? How about using them on tablets and smartphones? The same UI, as Microsoft is proving with Windows 8, doesn’t work. Do these products need to be re-invented from the ground up? Or are the products fine but need a different business model?

When I say “shrinking,” by the way, I don’t mean this from a product design perspective. I mean this from a distribution and business model perspective. Handhelds were sold the same way PCs were sold and handheld software was basically sold the same way desktop software was sold. This began to change with the rise of cellphones and smartphones, starting with the carriers taking control of both and eventually app stores dominating software sales. The method of software distribution has changed.

When I read Horace’s best work, I’m often confronted with more questions then answers, not just about the technology market but specifically about my own business. This post resonates with me very strongly.

Grow Fast, Grow Organic

Joel Spolsky, one of the founders of Stack Exchange and Fog Creek Software as well as the popular blogger writing Joel on Software, gave a very interesting presentation at Startup School. In it, he talked about two startup options, grow big fast or organic growth, and broke down the two. This has been done before but I’m including his list of differences here:

The interesting part is the part at the end. In short, Joel said the worst thing you can do for your business is fail to decide which category you are in.

He’s done both. Fog Creek Software is a grow slow business. It built itself from customers and consulting and is now a 40+ person company spitting out cash. Stack Exchange, on the other hand, is a grow fast company. It needs network effects to lock in its customers.

What really struck me as interesting is that Joel recognized very early that Stack Exchange was a get big fast business but waited two years before raising venture capital funding. He proved there was a customer base there first, proved that it could indeed grow fast, and then raised money from a few VCs that he specifically targeted. His round, he said, was done in two weeks. That history is repeating itself with Trello, a project management service from Fog Creek Software. This time, though, instead of raising VC money, the project is being funded by Fog Creek profits.

So which is it? Grow big fast or organic growth? While the former takes all the headlines, it’s the latter that makes the country go.

Living Through Hurricane Andrew

The air was dead still. We were outside throwing a football around and there was no breeze, no rustling of leaves, for that matter no sound at all, except the boys out front throwing a football around. Even in cemented South Florida there were always the noise of birds chirping or even cars driving. But not this evening. There was no noise. I remember the air being heavy but not as humid as August near Miami can be. After all, we were outside throwing a football around.

It was early evening, about the time the sun would start to fade, but at least in my memory it was a little hazy out and darker then usual. We knew it was going to be a long night but had no idea. Hurricane Andrew, the first hurricane of the 1992 season, was about to hit land.

The last major hurricane to hit South Florida was in the 1960s. Very few people living there in the 90s would have remembered it as most people in South Florida are transplants from New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Cleveland and Chicago. I remember people taking it seriously but no where near as serious as Katrina almost two decades later. My dad, living near Cleveland, Ohio, didn’t even know about the storm until I called him the day of to tell him it was coming.

The guys on the radio were already going. Meteorologist Brian Norcross was the go-to guy, saying he’d be on air as long as he could be. I can’t imagine the dedication to his job required when his family was home living through this. But if it wasn’t for Mr. Norcross, all of Ft Lauderdale and Miami would have gone insane sometime around 3am.

Most were predicting that Andrew would hit right on the Broward-Dade County line, which was about 2 miles south of my house. But hurricanes are fickle and where it appears to be going is not always the case. At the last minute it veered south, striking south of Miami in some of the poorest areas around, ripping apart the Miami zoo and running headlong through the Everglades.

I don’t remember any of my neighbors making a big deal out of it. We certainly didn’t. No one bought plywood or stocked up on supplies. None of the windows in the neighborhood were boarded up. A big storm is coming. Okay. We’ve seen nasty weather before.

I remember the winds starting and falling asleep to Mr. Norcross on the radio. Around 2 in the morning I awoke to a freight train running outside my window. That was the last I slept that night. Andrew’s winds were around 115 mph with gusts up to 165. At one point, even though we were warned against it, I looked out my window. The rain was lashing and any trees I could see were bent sideways. That’s when it dawned on me that I could see quite clearly. It wasn’t dark, actually. It was like twilight outside. I could also see the neighbors’ houses. The tree in our front yard was gone.

Somehow, from his offices in downtown Miami, Brian Norcross stayed on the air. He had at least 10 million listeners that night, listening in on reports from the frontlines, listening to the latest on wind gusts and direction, being reminded not to go outside when the eye passed over. All night we listened to people calling in. Most memorable was the family of five huddled in a bathroom as their roof was being pulled off their house, hearing the noise of Andrew ripping and tearing that helpless house to bits.

Sometime in the morning the winds died down, the freight train stopped running. Hurricane Andrew, by veering south, left us without a tree and a mailbox but everything else was fine. Our neighbors all had more damage then us but not much by South Florida standards, as we came to learn. Their taller houses shielded us. We were very lucky.

I can’t say the same for our neighbors to the south. I was friends with a police officer who, on his off-time, went to South Miami to help out. The entire area was flattened. People were propping up walls to their houses and writing street addresses on them just so anyone could find their way around. There were pictures of yachts in people’s swimming pools, picked up and carried miles inland. The devastation was total, like someone took a massive steamroller and rolled it over everything. The humanitarian effort was enormous. People came from all over the country to help out, bringing food and water by the truckload.

Obviously, South Florida recovered. It took years and billions of dollars. The innocence would not, though. The wave of devastating hurricanes, starting with Hugo and Gilbert just a few years before, is amazing given the lack of those in the decades preceding.

I live far from South Florida now, almost as far as one could live and still be in the continental United States. It doesn’t matter, though. Here in the Northwest we still have our disasters. Mountains exploding, ground shaking, and potential tsunamis that could carry away the entire coast. Andrew, though, carried away my innocence. I’ll never be so lackadaisical about weather again.

Writing Apps From The Bottom Up

I’m having a great time writing code. I wrote most of the code in the early days of Infinity Softworks, from 1997 to 2000. In 2000 we added employees and had a development team so spent my time managing the company, focusing on business development and marketing. In 2007, though, when the company got small again, I started writing code again.

I wrote code first for the BlackBerry then for iOS. That first year or two writing code was a slog, just trying to figure out my way. powerOne still has much of this early code and, frankly, it’s quite ugly internally. The design of the app changed substantially from version 1 to version 2, and then was hacked again to support the iPad.

But now, with the new project, I get to start from scratch. It is hugely liberating. We ended up needing iOS 6 for the project so we don’t have to worry about legacy OS versions. We designed the product before we coded it so we aren’t making massive UI changes that we have to hack in. In fact, we wrote big chunks of code in side projects to test stuff out first. While doing this I also went back and studied a lot of sample projects that others wrote, read a lot of documentation and a couple of iOS programming books.

Once we started with the final project I had a much clearer idea of not only how it would look but also how I wanted the code to be structured internally. We started with the database models, saving records and settings. Then we wrote all the sync code and the server back-end stuff. Then we shifted to the front-end. Before I’d write one  module to completion then add in others. This time I said forget the final graphics and instead make all the screen animations function. And instead of starting on iPhone-sized screens, we instead started on iPad believing the shift to the smaller screen will be simpler. From there we got the basic app functioning, saving real records, and editing those records. Next comes more functional integration and then final graphics. This order feels more natural then the UI-down approach we took with powerOne.

I’ve still had too many meetings lately and my time to program has been limited. But it still feels like progress in being made and much quicker then in the past. I can’t wait to get the first rev into your hands.

Seeing The Future

Warren Ellis gave a fascinating talk on seeing the future:

Understand that our present time is the furthest thing from banality. Reality as we know it is exploding with novelty every day. Not all of it’s good. It’s a strange and not entirely comfortable time to be alive. But I want you to feel the future as present in the room. I want you to understand, before you start the day here, that the invisible thing in the room is the felt presence of living in future time, not in the years behind us.

To be a futurist, in pursuit of improving reality, is not to have your face continually turned upstream, waiting for the future to come. To improve reality is to clearly see where you are, and then wonder how to make that better.

Too bad this wasn’t a commencement address. Would have been one of the best I ever heard.