I wanted to sit down this morning and write an article about Microsoft and Yahoo! merger and talk about why I had little faith in its success. I think it is doomed to failure because, generally, most companies don’t beat other companies when they play the game the same way.

For years, Microsoft was the hundred pound beast. You don’t create general-purpose software businesses or operating systems because Microsoft will most likely run you over. Now, Google is that beast. If you take on Google head-on, you are bound to lose.

The problem is my good friend Michael Mace wrote the article I was going to write before I wrote it. You can find it here.

Michael’s article is important for all business applications, not just for this merger. The lesson is to play the game in a slightly different way. When Microsoft decided they needed an email client, they didn’t just develop a client like Eudora did, they added integrated contacts and calendaring and automatic appointment creation and joint scheduling that Eudora didn’t and wouldn’t have. Microsoft changed the game.

Google did the same, taking what everyone else considered value-less and turned into mega money in just a few short years. Now Microsoft and Yahoo! will combine, thinking they can take on Google head-on? Good luck.

I wrote an entry a couple of weeks ago about how industry events are a thing of the past (see article here). And then today I am reading Guy Kawasaki’s blog and he references an article and study that basically says the same thing!

The basic premise of all of this: big industry events that put you in touch with industry insiders don’t have the effects you would expect.

The article itself covers the role of Influencers, those that get others to use and try a product. Think Right Guard and beer commercials with pro sports figures. The question is, does the tipping point (an influential and horrible book by Malcolm Gladwell) with influencers really occur or is a myth that doesn’t really play out?

The research done by Duncan Watts, formerly of Columbia University now at Yahoo! Research, shows that if a trend is going to occur, it is going to occur, no matter who is involved. Guy Kawasaki then underlines my comments about CES, the big tech trade show, by saying:

“Spend less time and effort on industry events and other focused PR and marketing that involves sucking up to journalists, analysts, and experts. Spend more time and effort pressing the flesh of real customers. Typically, you won’t meet too many customers at a Ritz Carlton.”

Well… that pretty much sums it up.

Sometimes I write these blog entries and it seems like I am living on some deserted island somewhere. And then I read something that someone said later that matches up and I say to myself, “Hmm.. it’s not an island! It’s a peninsula!”

There was a time when major technology shows were a big deal. Even when I started Infinity Softworks 11 years ago there was always buzz in the developer community when these big shows came up. If anyone is actually paying attention, the Computer Electronics Show (CES) is going on this week.

A big deal? For some, maybe, but not for most. What is accomplished there? Maybe some deal making. But the shows are so crazy that meeting anyone there is impossible — you better have the meetings set up in advance. No, it seems like a lot of puffery to me, a place for technologists to go play one-up-manship with each other and waste lots of money.

It seems that the Internet has changed so much of this. The trade show may become a thing of the past as we can now congregate online for a lot less. On top of that, the web has made getting the word out a lot easier. Companies no longer have to wait for these shows to make major announcements. Because of the cost-effective nature of PR distribution and the 24 hour x 365 day news cycle, positive PR travels fast and well. Big trade shows and the buzz they bring are not as required.

Don’t get me wrong. I think there are plenty of shows that make sense. I went to Inman News’ Real Estate Connect conference in San Francisco last year. What a great event for getting people together, helping them become better Realtors, and giving people a venue to focus specifically on market issues and not the next sale.

But big technology shows that only serve as giant sales venues? Maybe not so much.

Of course, I say this as I am thinking about my next laptop and wondering what Steve Jobs will announce for Apple at MacWorld on the 15th…

2008 may prove to be the year of the web application. Google has brought the spreadsheet and word processor online. I have been able to access my email online forever. And now Intuit is set to launch Quicken Online in January.

I couldn’t be more excited! But not just because I have been waiting for a trusted online financial manager that allows me to manage my finances from any computer, but also because of the implications.

Almost two months ago in my entry entitled Peering Into The Future, I mentioned that one of the biggest trends coming in mobile computing is connectivity and that this opens up the world for web-based applications. Both appear to be coming to pass. Already AT&T announced that the iPhone in 2008 will have Internet connectivity as fast as DSL and there are rumors that RIM is developing a BlackBerry that uses the same network (called 3G). I’m sure, although I haven’t heard, that Motorola, Samsung and the rest are not far behind.

Now, Intuit lends credibility to the web-based application. When big companies start to jump in it is a very good sign. Intuit’s online version will not only work in your web browser, but also on your iPhone (as reported by MacWorld Magazine here).

If software starts moving online and customers accept it, I predict that all of us — customers and companies — will be much happier. And that, my friends, will make a very happy New Year!