Three Magic Numbers

Three Magic Numbers

Brad Feld talks about how he came to the conclusion that there are only three numbers that matter and we should each figure out what ours are. His post has been sticking in my craw for a while now. He is right: we have an explosion of data and it is impossible to track it all and have it be meaningful. I remember early on the advice I received: don’t track it if you aren’t going to use it. I try to be judicious this way.

So what numbers do I track right now? On a daily basis, it is revenues, overall downloads, and product position in the category for our top selling app. The category position gives me a good indicator as to whether revenues are down overall or just for our products.

On a quarterly/half-yearly/annual basis, I look at revenue and downloads, too, but broken down on a per product basis and graphed. The graph helps me stay focused on data trends rather than the data points themselves. I also look at month-to-month revenues to see how it is trending versus the year before.

On top of this I am always watching the cash in the bank account. That’s a given, though, and is the most important number. As my college management professor taught me, Cash Is King.

Growing Up

At 26 I thought I was ready to run a company.

In the preceding few years I had done pretty much everything while putting the first building blocks of Infinity Softworks in place. I’d written much of the code, did support, managed the finances, sold and marketed the products, built relationships.

And then in 2000 I met a few good guys and we agreed that we wanted to build something bigger. The stock market was still going strong, the mobile market was growing 100% per year and we were afraid someone would pass us. So we decided to raise a round of funding. And that became my job while I left everyone else to run the company.

But me walking away like this left the company rudderless. I never shared my vision for the company and never pushed my ideas. I didn’t do a good job of defining roles in the company. I can’t even say I even believed in my own abilities.

Infinity Softworks, over the next seven years, failed. By 2007 the revenues were gone and the employees were gone and I was left by myself, again, for the first time since 1999.

But then something funny happened. A spark, an idea, a belief. And I started to build around that idea and I was able to convince one of my previous employees to come back, too. And the idea became more formed over the next year and a half and a few other people offered to help, some with money and others with time.

And now the ideas are solid enough to pursue as a bigger company again. The mobile market is growing better than 100% per year and we are attracting even more people to help out, with money or time or both.

But this time it is different. Not just because the ideas are different and more fully formed but also because I am different.

At 38 I am ready to run a company.

I understand my vision and I understand my strengths and limitations. I have a hiring strategy and a business strategy and a product strategy and the beginnings of a marketing strategy. I am comfortable with who I am. I am no longer ashamed of my attention to detail, my desire to get everything just right, my unbending rule that you don’t ship half-ass crap. I have the personal fortitude to take in other people’s opinions and let them influence the direction without losing my own perspectives. Heck, I have perspectives.

It took me 12 years but I’m ready to lead.

Follow me.

A Billion Dollars … One Dollar At A Time

What’s In a Number?

Good article from Bryce Roberts:

This notion of a billion dollar company is steeped in silicon valley lore. … Quite often, the companies that state it as an early goal fail while those that end up being the wildest of successes, start out with a very different objective.

He goes on to show a number of good examples of companies that started with much smaller ambitions. I think he overstates it a bit as many companies that do end up with billion dollar valuations set out to do that. The key to his post, though, is that it takes time to get there. It is easy to daydream about the big goal rather than executing today.

Bottom line: a good idea is a good idea, no matter what size I think it will be.

Choose: Win the Battle or Win the War

Yesterday a friend sent me a disturbing post from a California investor. His post talked about the kinds of people he likes to invest in. His example was a CTO of one of his companies, a guy who “works 20 hours a day as CTO, and rides motorcycles, mountain bikes, and numerous other high speed vehicles on weekends.” The investor sees his actions — including after a horrific accident making calls from the ICU and working non-stop from his bed even though he couldn’t move one arm — as signs of “a great leader” who “puts his heart and soul” into his company and “would do anything not to let his team down.”

I have no doubt he is right. I only doubt the misplaced priorities.

Let’s juxtapose this post with two others: one from Fred Wilson, also a venture capitalist, and another from Jeff Atwood, an entrepreneur. Fred today talks about how important it is to build an ecosystem not just in the product but also in the community:

We want to build a world where entrepreneurship is available everywhere. But we also want to do everything we can to grow and nurture the entrepreneurial community in New York City. And we believe that the things we support in NYC can and will be copied throughout the world so that our local ecosystem efforts support our global ecosystem efforts.

And then there is Jeff Atwood who quit Stack Exchange, hugely influential in the development community, to spend more time with his growing family. “We just welcomed two new family members into our family, and running as fast as you can isn’t sustainable for parents of multiple small children.” Jeff, it isn’t sustainable for anyone.

And here’s what’s frustrating to me. The first guy is, in my mind, advocating short-term gains and to hell with any long-term success. He is, for all intents and purposes, celebrating a guy who leads a wholly unsustainable and unhealthy lifestyle, insomuch as it practically killed him. (How, by the way, is that good for the start-up?)

And then there are Fred and Jeff, both of whom point out indirectly that this is about long-term success, this is about sustainability, this is about success-begetting-success. This isn’t just about this generation but about the next one and the one after that.

We can all kill ourselves, literally and figuratively, for our businesses. But winning is an act of attrition as much as it is an act of dominance. The first VC equated starting a company to waging a war. I don’t disagree. But the battle is won in a year. The war is won in a lifetime.

Thinking About The Product Box Theory of Marketing

A few weeks ago I wrote abut the single box theory of software design. I have another one I’d like to add: the product box theory of marketing.

Here’s how I believe each customer’s mind works: I need to do “x” so I need to go to this service to do it. I need to share files across computers so I need to put them in Dropbox. I need to exercise so I will go over to 24 Hour Fitness. I need to buy a book so I will go to Amazon.com. I need to buy soap so I will go to Target.

As humans we like to sort and categorize, we like to put things in little boxes. We know when we need to do “blah” we can go to that little box to get it done.

If your product doesn’t fit into a box then don’t ship until it does. And if your product doesn’t satisfy the entire box, don’t ship either.

We almost learned this the hard way. When developing powerOne calculator we realized that the customer says, “I need to do a calculation so I use powerOne.” But early on we considered leaving off the general-purpose calculator. It is a real pain to develop and maintain and the iPhone had one bundled. But after a couple of customer interviews it became clear quickly that the calculator needed to be there. The customer didn’t want to say when I need to calculate this I need powerOne but when I need to calculate this other thing I need the iPhone calculator. No, the customer wants to say I need to calculate and then grab powerOne.

This box is critical for success. Without it the customer will never really latch on to using your product or service.