Gazing Into My Looking Glass: 700Mhz Spectrum Edition

For those who pay attention to such minutia, there was a big auction last week by the FCC. If you are unaware, the Federal Communication Commission auctions off bandwidth periodically. This bandwidth is the basis for all kinds of wireless transmissions, including bluetooth, wi-fi, CB radio, regular radio, etc. The bandwidth that was auctioned will come free next year and covers the spectrum of traditional broadcast television.

From a business perspective, this auction was interesting. Google fought very hard to get some restrictions on the use of this bandwidth. Most notably, the FCC required that the winning bidders must open the spectrum to all devices. For devices that use this bandwidth, you would hypothetically go to the store, buy a device and then choose which provider to use it with. In other words, you will be able to use your iPhone with Verizon services, if you so desire.

The second interesting impact of this auction is technical. This spectrum is very good at going through walls and over long distances. The former is a problem with cellular bandwidth; the latter a problem with wi-fi.  In other words, with the right receiver, we could have mobile devices that have high-speed Internet connections everywhere.

Will this happen tomorrow? Of course not. But it does show that at least the big boys, AT&T and Verizon who bought 80% of the bandwidth for $17 billion, are very concerned about solving this problem.

Mobile Destiny: The Crossroads Approach

I had a couple of great conversations recently with my friend Michael Mace who succinctly summed it up: In the world of mobile, we are at an inflection point. For the first time, mobile technology has become good enough to serve the business purposes of its users. Soon, the laws of diminishing returns will affect the market. In other words, does increase power and capability actually make the devices better? Or are these incremental improvements, same as what has happened in the PC world? There is no doubt that we are fast approaching this crossroads and soon, incremental technological improvements will be the norm.

There are still a few big hills in front of us that will make mobile technology significantly better, namely faster data connections, synchronization via the web (rather than sync cable), and truer browsing experiences (read here). But the top of this hill is fast approaching us, I believe, and we are within a year or two of reaching the top.

There is a dynamic in the market that has affected all of us. In order to make money, carriers and hardware vendors feel they have to make devices and services that broadly appeal to everyone. So the capabilities of the devices are generic and the plans provided are pretty close to “one size fits all.”

The problem is these are highly personalized devices. They are very oriented around niches, or vertical, markets. The needs of a Realtor are vastly different from the needs of a contractor or lawyer or business manager. So there is a disconnect between the way these devices are presented and sold and the way they are used. And that leaves all of us hunting for third-party solutions to fill the gap.

There are significant challenges for third-party developers, though; it is getting harder and harder for us to develop native applications (those that go on the device) and then get the word out about them. We can no longer partner with hardware manufacturers because all device and in-box promotion decisions are controlled by carriers. Carriers don’t care about niche markets, for one, and prefer no software be installed at all, raising huge certification and device lock-down barriers to keep software out. Finally, software resellers, the remaining sales channel, are either charging exorbitant fees or have disappeared altogether. Why not go after niches, you ask? Because there isn’t enough device penetration around a platform or two to make it worth the development effort (read here).

This is why the crossroads fast approaching, this intersection of business utility and technological prowess, is so important. The rise of the Internet as a medium for software and the ability of these mobile devices to run them effectively will open up a new world for you, as a business person trying to make the device useful for your needs, and for us, as a developer trying to help you get there.

Lighter is Better

I’m a laptop aficionado. I bought my first laptop in 1999 and have used one ever since.

I see laptops as an extension of myself. I have been using computers since 1986, age 13, and have almost always had one with me ever since. I like the idea of being able to take it with me, have it on a trip, read the news or look something up quickly. My first computer was an Apple IIc, as close to a laptop as you could get in those days. Only once have I owned a desktop system.

The problem is that laptops seem to keep getting bigger and heavier and, to me, that defeats the purpose. Do I want to carry 10 pounds on my back? Need a suitcase to carry it? I don’t think so. Not only do I prefer lighter, but I also bike commute to work. The 6.5 pounder I have today doubles the weight of my bike!

Frankly, I think I am a pretty intensive computer user. I write code so I need compilers. I do video editing, listen to music, work on the web, use Excel, Powerpoint, and Word.

I looked at a Dell laptop but, frankly, am sick of Windows and won’t use Windows Vista. So I waited to see what Apple announced. I’m looking forward to playing with the MacBook Air.

What do I like? Apple’s OS, light weight of the machine, screen size and back-lit keyboard (I find I work in the dark some). What is a potential concern? No removable battery, no internal card reader.

Surprising answer, even to me, about the card reader. Apple hasn’t included a CD/DVD burner in this thing but it is the card reader I care about? Well, I find that I need to move photos and video from my camera to the computer more than I ever use DVDs or CDs. And as far as storage is concerned, networking is cheap, bandwidth is affordable, hard drive space is ridiculously abundant. I do so much on the web now anyway.

Maybe I’m unique in these ways but I don’t think so. I remember people bitching when floppy drives disappeared. I think, to a certain extent, CD drives are the same… If the networked drive works as indicated then I may have everything I need.

Will this be my first Apple computer since 1994? We’ll see.

Palm: A Love Story

The general feeling, from what I can gather through multiple conversations with long standing Palm loyalist customers, seems to be that Palm is dying and that everyone who bought into Palm’s vision is mourning the loss. Given that, while I have been hurt by Palm’s decisions more than most, I’m not ready to say that Palm is dead. In fact the company may have a renaissance, a la its big brother Apple, in it yet. So I thought I would shed some light on the Palm story from someone who has been too involved over the years.

Palm Computing was founded to write software for other company’s mobile devices and found that those devices were horrible. Palm said, “Hey! We can do better!” and wrote their own operating system and designed their own devices. But the company struggled to get funding because so many mobile computing companies failed in front of them. US Robotics, a major manufacturer of modems at the time, liked what Palm was doing and bought a majority stake. At the height of the dot-com hysteria, 3Com bought US Robotics. 3Com was run (into the ground) by Eric Benhamou, its CEO, who also took a seat on Palm’s board.

In 1999, with Palm riding high, the management team pushed Eric to take it public. He refused and in so doing, forced Palm’s management team and a number of followers out the door. Donna Dubinski, Jeff Hawkins and Ed Colligan formed Handspring and licensed the Palm OS. This is the first time Palm was split in half.

Over the next couple of years, Palm continued to churn out interesting devices mainly because those devices were already in process when Donna, Jeff and Ed left, as I understand it. Palm was also pushed by Handspring (the first to introduce expansion cards) and Sony (much more stylish devices). Palm released really sleek and small devices like the Palm V series and some of the first wireless devices like the Palm VII. I believe it took about two years for the original team’s designs to work their way through Palm and into the market. After that, the quality of device really fell off.

Of course, the company went public anyway a year or two later anyway, making the force out of the original team stupid.

By my recollection, though, Palm had already lost its way by the beginning of 2002, at the point where the original team’s devices had already been in the market. Jeff was always quick to point out that the device is not a desktop replacement and therefore didn’t need to compete with Microsoft’s operating system offerings. The feeling at Palm pre-split was that it was more important how people accessed data and information, for instance, than it was for there to be high-res color screens and the like. There was also a sense that competing against Microsoft head-to-head, processor power to processor power, was a huge mistake. The original team was right, it was, and the follow-on team did it anyway.

By 2003, Handspring had run its course and they realized they needed bigger legs to move into the cellular business with its Treo line and the two companies merged back together. By then, however, the Board led by Eric Benhamou split the company a second time, this time spinning out the operating system group.

By 2005, Palm saw that the future was cell phones, not stand-alone handhelds, and pretty much laid off anyone specifically involved with the old line that couldn’t transition to the new. That’s where we got caught. Palm’s education team, which was focused on selling traditional handhelds to schools, was let go and Infinity Softworks’ play for high school mathematics was over.

Since then, Palm has made a living selling the Handspring-designed Treo line of products and transitioning as many of its existing handheld customers as possible. Eric Benhamou left the Board sometime in here also. Palm also bought back the operating system group in 2006, finally giving Palm the ability to innovate around both software and hardware, which in the cellular business has always been very closely tied together.

The popular wisdom is that Palm is dead. I don’t agree for three reasons:

1. The old team of developers led by Jeff, Donna and Ed are resurfacing at Palm and are very excited, although tight lipped, about what is going on. This is good news for the company.

2. The mobile market is in a state of transition, which opens the doors for “new” players. Palm is only one really cool device away from being back near the top of the market and being mentioned along with Apple for innovation. And as much as everyone is upset with the company, I sense that some really nice devices would bring a lot of people back into their camp.

3. It took two years for the original team’s devices to work their way through the company and for Palm to be “influenced” by new blood. This executive team has been back in charge and in control of the operating system for only one year so far. I would expect to see the second wave devices give way to a third wave at the end of next year, with this third wave influenced tremendously by the original team plus some new blood that came from Apple’s iPod group.

Will Palm die and be remembered as by-gone from another era outpaced by Apple and the like? Or will they follow Apple’s lead — where many of the original Palm employees came from — and resurrect itself? I don’t know and no longer get insider information. But I’m starting to sense some positive momentum for the beleaguered company.

An Industry In Transition

I get the feeling that, technologically, we are approaching a huge inflection point. Look at cars, for instance. In the next few years we will see a massive transition in engine technologies that make them more efficient both in a gasoline and emissions kind of way.

I believe the same is true for cell phone industry.

In the last few weeks, huge announcements regarding openness and competition have taken place. Here are the ones I think are critical:

T-Mobile and Sprint announce wi-fi support. Couple this with iPhone having built-in wi-fi that works off AT&T’s network and suddenly connectivity is changing. Have a wi-fi connection near-by? No problem. Don’t? No problem.

AT&T pre-announcing for Apple that rev 2 of the iPhone will be 3G enabled. What’s 3G? Think internet access on your cell phone as fast as cable or DSL at home. No bandwidth lag on the phone means a whole new world for application development and device access. Devices with mediocre browsers will be in trouble as more and more content is delivered wirelessly to you anywhere you are. (As an aside, I would love to have been a fly on the wall when Steve Jobs heard AT&T announce this for him.)

– Android from Google is announced. Now this is a platform and isn’t massively changing the market in and of itself. But if Google is successful with their approach, we will have more interesting devices that work across networks and offer more choices for developers and customers alike.

– Open platforms have become the norm. Verizon joins T-Mobile and Sprint in the open platform approach advocated by Google. This could have a huge impact on how we buy cell phones and open up the market for alternative devices. Like to carry a wireless tablet? Today, the cost to partner with the big boys is too expensive for anyone other than Microsoft, Google and Apple. That might not be the case tomorrow.

– There is new bandwidth coming up for auction and anyone can bid on it. While I am no expert on the ins and outs of cellular bandwidth, I do know it is big deal when companies like Apple and Google bid on it. See, whomever controls the bandwidth has the right to set the licensing terms to others as to how it will be used. Computer companies like Apple and Google will see how to use that bandwidth a lot differently than Verizon and AT&T.

The bottom line is more openness, more choices, and higher bandwidth. As you can see by the names in bold, all the big boys here in the States are playing.

To this point in time, major carriers such as AT&T and Verizon have dominated the cellular game, lording it over hardware manufacturers, software developers and customers alike. This model may be turned on its head, with hardware and software companies gaining at least equal footing and consumers getting much better options.