Popping the Android-iOS/Windows-Mac OS Bubble

It has been bandied about a lot lately that the fight between Android and iOS is the same as the fight between Windows and Mac OS. Conventional wisdom says they are the same; my gut tells me they are different. To make the historical connection, one can compare operating systems or one can compare device manufacturers. Today I want to look at device manufacturers. For that, let’s use a chart from Horace Dediu’s excellent blog, Asymco:

As you can see, Apple trails only Nokia as the leading manufacturer of devices and this chart is now acting as a data point in my historical perspective.

At the height of the Mac OS/Windows wars, the largest hardware vendors were not Apple. The last time Apple was in the top 5 PC vendors was 1996 and even then they accounted for only 6% of all computers sold. It is also important to note that over the past 15 years the percentage of the market dominated by the top 5 went from about 35% to almost 60% and those five all bundled Windows. Since all the revenues (and, presumably, the vast amount of profit) were flowing to only a few leaders, I would expect that the rise in total market share percentage from 35 to 60% also correlates with the demise of many PC manufacturers. (Source is here.) This also leaves me with a second conclusion: the “war” between Mac OS and Windows was primarily imagined by those of us who cared about Mac OS. Windows and its vendors collectively dominated operating system units, hardware unit sales and the top five were mostly profitable to boot. There was no war.

Now let’s look at the smartphone market today. Apple has been in the top five for four years and took over the number two spot from RIM last year, continuing to grow leaps and bounds. Apple will likely pass 20% of the devices sold this year, which matches the anecdotal data that Apple is dominating the #1 (iPhone 4) and #2 (iPhone 3Gs) best selling smartphones worldwide. Three of the top five worldwide hardware vendors have, to this point, been built with proprietary operating systems and those three combined control over 60% of the smartphone market, the same percentage as the top five PC manufacturers, again all Windows systems. The rest of the market is predominantly Android.

This analysis is not an attempt to say that iOS will be bigger than Android or Apple devices will outnumber Android devices. I actually don’t think either will come to pass. The entire point here is to continue testing whether iOS-Android is the same war as Mac OS-Windows. Clearly, it is not. Does that mean it will turn out the same? This analysis tells me that it won’t be the same outcome. Apple will never be an also-ran like it was in the PC market.

Innovation By Limiting Options

As we work on a new project here for the first time in a decade I am thriving off some simple restrictions we put in place and causing me to be more creative. Those restrictions:

  • Should adjust naturally to screen size changes
  • Should be easily portable to other operating systems
These two issues have become major stumbling blocks for powerOne. powerOne is highly dependent on the screen dimensions of the device because of the calculator and the editors. It also takes a lot of work — 9 months to a year — to move it to a new operating system and device. Both of these issues make us slow moving in a market that is moving ridiculously fast.
This new project, which will remain nameless for at least another couple of weeks, is designed from the beginning to be a lot more portable. We have leveraged some existing code and existing iOS experience. We are about to enter a final testing phase with the product just three months after starting.
I like putting artificial limits on products, bounding the box with which I work. Creating restrictions forces creativity to flow in alternative directions and I hope, once I start showing the new app, that you’ll agree that boxes were placed in the right spots.

A Tale of Two Companies

When figuring out which companies to work with we are often sifting through tea leaves looking for hints of future success. Do they say the right things? Are they focused on the right priorities? Do we align with sales and products and do I believe the past is an indicator of the future for this organization?

The mobile market has been my home for the past 14 years and I have tried to read between the lines for each one for quite some time. A couple of weeks ago two companies were both being hounded by the press. Their reactions to press comments are quite revealing. Here’s Company #1:

It may seem odd, but from my perspective, this [criticism] means we are being taken very seriously. [Company #1] is an important company and it’s under scrutiny from journalists—this [being criticized] is exactly how it’s supposed to work. Now it’s our job to prove the reporters wrong so they can write an article later about how we have made dramatic progress.

Company #2:

I don’t think that’s fair. A lot of the people who want this want a secure and free extension of their [Company #2 Product].

I should also note that Company #2’s co-CEO stood up and walked out on a BBC interview because he apparently didn’t like the question.

If the last paragraph didn’t clue you in, Company #2 is RIM. I have never heard a company more defensive than this one. Sure it is being attacked from all sides these days but that is war and RIM needs to fight.

The first quote is Biz Stone of Twitter, whose company has also been blasted in the press and by customers recently for a number of things, including the advertising quickbar which was renamed dickbar by customers and removed shortly thereafter. His quote is much more conciliatory, much more accepting of the role of the press and much more positive in its outlook. (He may curse them out privately but he isn’t publicly!)

Now… which company seems to be more stable and which company — both of which are trying to attract developers — comes across as the more appropriate partner? That answers easy.

For the record, we don’t develop with Twitter’s API and have developed for the BlackBerry. Also, for the record, I played with the PlayBook for about two minutes last night. My first impressions? Nice UI and navigation once you know how to use it but generally unintuitive (it was explained to me and then it made sense), the on/off button is the worst I have ever seen (I couldn’t turn it on or off) and the device felt heavy for its size. Not enough time to play with the apps but those can be fixed more easily then hardware and fundamental design decisions anyway.

Start-Ups Need Capital, Product, Customers. Which Do You Bring?

There was a great question posted on Hacker News last week asking what a non-technical person can bring to a start-up. I contributed the following, succinct answer:

Companies need capital and product and customers. Figure out which ones the rest of your team aren’t bringing and bring it.

First, it is important to note what a start-up is. A start-up is the first stage of company formation. All of the effort is focused on figuring out the core business elements: Who do we sell to? How do we market it? What are we creating? How do we protect it? Is it a big enough opportunity? Is there a big problem we are solving? If we can successfully answer these questions than we exit the start-up stage with a repeatable process and are able to grow the business.

The more I have thought about that simple answer — capital, product and customers is all a start-up needs — the more I like it. (Patting myself on the back :-)) What I am particularly pleased with is how this focuses all attention during this phase on the core elements: How do we pay for this time period? What are we selling? Who has a problem big enough that they are willing to pay for it?

This simple statement is not only focusing on what needs to be done but on the kinds of people that should be considered, too. Those who should work with early stage start-ups are those that bring capital or product or customers (or a combination thereof). Those who can bring these elements in abundance are founders; others are advisors or future employees once the growth stage begins.

I am working on a couple of new products here at Infinity Softworks, any of which could be spun off into a new company. As I think about starting these new businesses, this simple framework has focused me tremendously on what needs to be done and who should be involved to make it happen.

Goodbye, Grandpa.

My grandfather died last week of a massive heart attack. He would have been 93 this Friday. 93 sounds old but he wasn’t. He was very active and fit, lived with my grandmother (whom he was married to for 72 years) in the same house they have been in for 20 years without any help, went to the gym multiple times per week to work out. He swam miles per week until a year or so ago when the chlorine really was bothering his skin, which had thinned out.

I jumped an airplane the next day and spent the week in Ohio with my grandmother, my dad, stepmom, and family. It was a weird week. The pain and remorse and what ifs that often goes along with death weren’t there. He lived a full life and died a fast and painless death.

My grandparents have been an integral part of my life. If it wasn’t for them there would be no powerOne calculator and no Infinity Softworks today. Besides the constant advice and input about business issues from a man who ran his own company for 30 years, there were two events in particular that made Infinity possible.

The first came when I finished my undergraduate degree and was trying to figure out what to do next. I wanted to get Infinity Softworks off the ground but couldn’t do it and pay back my student loans. My grandparents gave me a great opportunity, paying for me to go to graduate school (and thus defer my loans) while working on Infinity Softworks. In other words, Grandpa gave me a full-time job while I started and grew Infinity. By the time I graduated with a technical MBA in 2001, Infinity Softworks was ready to grow.

The second time Grandpa came to my rescue was in 1998. My business partner decided he wanted to leave the company and I didn’t have the money to buy him out. My grandparents lent me the money, even offering to be a partner instead of a lender. I paid him back in nine months even though the loan was for two years.

I will miss my grandfather dearly. He has been a great role model and friend for 37 years.

—-

This is the eulogy I gave at my Grandfather’s funeral:

When I think about my grandfather I think primarily about the six places where we interacted.

The first was the house in Massillon. My predominant memory there was passover and the endless stretch of tables that spread from the family room to the dining room to the living room. Passover at the Freedman house was always such a fun affair. Everyone participated, from the youngest child to the oldest adult, reading from the Haggadah, eating and talking and of course, the thing all of us kids spent all of dinner anticipating: finding the matzoh and the special treats that went along with that. Grandma, to this day, I still have a couple of those towels you and Grandpa gave me.

The second was the house in Canton. This memory revolved around my grandmother and food. Grandpa and I would sit at that table in the kitchen eating your matzoh brie and tomato slices — Grandpa always loved a tomato slice — until we were too stuffed to eat any more.

My third memory is of the golf course. It is my father and my grandfather who taught me to play that wretched game. Grandpa never could hit the ball far — 150 yards straight ahead — and I always played from the fairway to the right, eventually meeting up again on the green. We always kept score but Grandpa always told me, when we get home and Grandma asked how we did, tell her we tied.

My fourth memory is of this place, Shaaray Torah synagogue. I was young when I moved from Ohio so my memories here are of my very early youth, of Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur, when it felt like a million people were here for the high holiday services and chairs stretched through the sanctuary and into the room next door.

And Shaaray Torah was always linked, in my mind, to the Jewish Center. I have lots of memories of the Jewish Center. One is of Grandpa playing racketball until Grandma made him quit because he was playing people half his age. And I always wondered what was through that Men’s Club door at the top of the stairs, the doors that we were too young to go through, until one day Grandma sent me in there to tell Grandpa something and I found out there were only naked men in there. But my overriding memory is of Grandpa swimming. I was in the pool near my home one day a year ago and a fellow swimmer stopped me and complimented me on my beautiful stroke, how I cut through the water with barely a splash. All I could think of was that I inherited that from my grandfather. He should have been born with gills and fins.

But my last memory — Tappin Lake — is the most powerful. Interestingly, though, it isn’t Grandpa specifically that I remember about that place. Instead it is the textures, the sounds and smells. Grandpa used to get this dark tan from being in the sun all summer and it was so amazingly offset against the wispy, white hair of his. It was the sound of the reel-to-reel video projector that played all those cartoon shorts Grandpa would rent from the library. I still remember how happy we were the day Joshua and Matthew were finally old enough to work the projector so we didn’t have to wait for an adult to switch movies. It’s the smell of Grandma cooking or the barbeque going, the sound of sizzling food ready to feed the army that descended on weekends. It was the oddity of Grandpa mixing two cereals together in the same bowl. Grandpa used to love to torture the poor soul who would sit in front of the driver’s seat on the boat. He’d blast that horn right in your ear as we went under the road and out into the wider lake. It was the smell of gasoline in that little shed to the back of the house where Grandpa kept the skis and fishing poles that rarely caught a fish. It was those chimes that were outside the kitchen window, the smell of fresh cut grass, the sound of the revving motor as Grandpa yelled “Here we go!”, the rope tightened and up we went on skis.

I have other memories, too — looking around to see my 91-year old grandfather on his hands and knees playing horsy with my daughter, the fact that he would always ask me, “How’s my little boy?” whenever we would talked even though I was taller then him by the age of eight, the advice he gave a budding business man.

But these are small. It is these six places, each and every one of them infused with Grandpa’s unique sense of humor. I will remember that most.

—-

For the record, I had six notes on my page — a bullet for each place — and the final paragraph. The rest I did off the top of my head. I made it through the entire eulogy until the last line. The word “humor” stuck in my throat. I stood there for a few minutes unable to say anything. I even stepped back from the podium trying to regain the ability to speak. I regained my composure just long enough to say the last sentence and get off the stage. People who came up to me later asked if I had planned that pause. They said it brought everything right back to the present and made it feel like he was in the room.