Mobile’s Hierarchy of Needs

Really smart article by Ben Thompson:

There is a “Mobile Hierarchy of Needs”, and understanding what needs have already been met, and by who, helps clarify the current basis of competition, who the relevant players are, and who is winning or losing.

Now Ben’s talking about platforms (iOS, Android), but every developer I know (or at least the smart ones) are looking at the relatable tier (services) and asking how they play there. The prices in the market for one-off revenue are suppressive, perfect for hobbyists and no one else. The only future is recurring revenues, at least if the goal is to build something sustainable. So far I’m hearing a lot about three models: ads, subscriptions, and in app purchases, where in app purchases aren’t “buy once and have forever” but where in app means selling the same or new things to the same customers over and over again. I’m waiting to see breakthrough revenue models as well.

 

In Movies, It’s All About The Story Once Again

Once upon a time, the story was all there was for a movie. Some of my all-time favorites: A Philadelphia Story, Maltese Falcon, The Godfather. None of these had special effects. But then Star Wars happened and suddenly special effects were good enough to add to a story instead of be a distraction. For the next decade and a half special effects and stories intermixed comfortably.

In 1991 Steven Spielberg released Jurassic Park. The world was never the same. I remember going to that movie opening weekend and being absolutely amazed at the special effects. It was the first time in my memory that the special effects were so good they were seamless. (More than 20 years later they still hold up.) The only limitation was physical, since that movie was made with physical dinosaurs, animatronic and stop-action. That lasted a couple more years as Toy Story came out and once again I remember being floored by it. Computer special effects that rivaled real life. That scene when Buzz loses his arm, the top view down to the tile floor… I swear I’ve been in that house.

That was 1995, almost 20 years ago. In those years it seems the special effects have only gotten better, often at the expense of a great story. The action directors we love the most, the J.J. Abrams’, the Josh Whedon’s, still instill good stories with awesome special effects but it seems like stories have been generally lost in the shuffle.

We’ve reached a point, though, where special effects have gotten so good and so prevalent that every movie has some special effects in it. Now when I see special effects I don’t get excited about the effects anymore. Special effects, in essence, have become commoditized. And when anything become commoditized, something else has to take hold to get consumers to buy.

And that’s why I think, over the next decade, we will see stories take center stage again. Special effects no longer pack in the customers. It’ll have to be the story that  drives customers to the theaters.

A 23-Year Game Of Tag

This story is awesome. These high school friends have been playing a game of tag for 23 years now, only with some special rules. A great anecdote from the article:

One February day in the mid-1990s, Mr. Tombari and his wife, then living in California, got a knock on the door from a friend. “Hey, Joe, you’ve got to check this out. You wouldn’t believe what I just bought,” he said, as he led the two out to his car.

What they didn’t know was Sean Raftis, who was “It,” had flown in from Seattle and was folded in the trunk of the Honda Accord. When the trunk was opened he leapt out and tagged Mr. Tombari, whose wife was so startled she fell backward off the curb and tore a ligament in her knee.

“I still feel bad about it,” says Father Raftis, who is now a priest in Montana. “But I got Joe.”

Return and Ridicule

Fred Wilson:

I have found that return and ridicule are highly correlated over the years. We have made more money on things that were highly ridiculed than on any other cohort. When I see people laughing at ideas and companies we have backed, I smile. It means we are going to make a lot of money on that investment.

George Gershwin, 1937, They All Laughed:

They all laughed at Christopher Columbus
When he said the world was round
They all laughed when Edison recorded sound
They all laughed at Wilbur and his brother
When they said that man could fly

They all laughed at Rockefeller center
Now they’re fighting to get in
They all laughed at Whitney and his cotton gin
They all laughed at Fulton and his steamboat
Hershey and his chocolate bar

Ford and his misery
Kept the laughers busy
That’s how people are

I hope they laugh at me.

I Don’t Care Who You Know

I’m not even bothering to link to the article because it is completely unimportant for the point I want to make. Here’s the quote:

Yesterday over at Grantland, my friend Jonah Keri…

“My friend.” Those two words add nothing to the story. They don’t add clarity, they don’t add insight. All they are meant to do is remind the reader that this author circulates in a much more rarified air than do we. The author, because he knows Jonah Keri [1], is important.

I hate it when people do stuff like this. If you ever catch me doing it, please call me on it.

[1] Whoever the hell Jonah Keri is.